Consumer Confidence | The Zebra Blog

Consumer Confidence

…How the election may affect house prices

I want to start off by saying that this article is NOT based on my political views and is not meant to support any party.

There is no doubt that election years do have an impact on the housing market.  All you have to do is go back in history and you will see a very clear pattern during election years.  This year will be no different. While I am not saying that there is going to be a dramatic shift, I do feel that as we approach November, consumers that are considering buying or selling might wait until they know who has been elected.

Uncertainty is one of the major factors that contribute to the Consumer Confidence Index.  When consumers are not certain they tend to wait and see rather than take action.  This holding pattern could create some very healthy pent-up demand for housing which would take us into a robust 2017 market.  Of course, it could also convince some sellers to stay in place and renovate rather than to sell and buy.  So of course until November comes no one knows for sure who will be elected and while the news networks are spending a lot of time and energy speculating, no one will know that answer until the polls have been closed and the votes have been tallied.

The recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence reports show that the number of those planning to buy a home is still increasing – a good thing for our real estate market.  The election so far hasn’t stopped people from taking action. You can read more at: http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/consumer-confidence-barely-changed-in-july/

During this election year, even more so than other years, the housing industry is on high alert watching every move and recording every word the candidates are saying for clues of what may come if they are elected. There have been many polls out there debating who will have a more positive affect on the housing market. Even Zillow recently polled over 100 experts to find out what they think might happen and their survey showed that, “the more centrist candidates from either party would be best for the economy and housing market,” according to Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell.

But before you add any more stress to your life worrying about the election and the housing market, just go back to the key components of a strong real estate market:

  • Housing is fueled by demand – the demand for housing right now is SO strong because we have never made up for the lack of new construction we have had over the past seven years. This will help to bolster the housing industry.
  • People need a place to live – it doesn’t matter who is in office; everyone needs a home, a place to live and call their own. Homeownership rates have risen showing that people want to own again. There is much speculation that the only reason the homeownership rate is not even higher is due to the fact the people are still repairing the credit that was damaged during our housing crash.
  • Employment – both candidates have talked very openly about their plans to continue to improve the job market, jobs are what are needed to keep our housing industry strong.
  • New Home Construction– this is the area I watch the CLOSEST to answer many of my questions about the housing market. In the latest Census Bureau Report sales of newly constructed homes soared to its highest annual rate in eight years in June.  This CLEARLY shows that the demand for homes is strong and the desire for these homes is at an all-time high.

So before you jump on the “What If” bandwagon that many real estate agents are on right now –  STOP! Get back to work, take action, communicate with your clients (as they may be unsure of what the future holds as well) and just know that if you focus on helping those that need you, and there are many people out there right now that need you, the housing market will be just fine!!!

 

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